Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides
Edited by William J. Warren-Hicks, Andy Hart
While current methods used in ecological risk assessments for pesticides are largely deterministic, probabilistic
methods that aim to quantify variability and uncertainty in exposure and effects are attracting growing interest from
industries and governments. Probabilistic methods offer more realistic and meaningful estimates of risk and hence,
potentially, a better basis for decision-making. Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides
examines the applicability of probabilistic methods for ecological risk assessment for pesticides and explores
their appropriateness for general use.
Hardcover 228 pp ISBN 9781439807347
The book presents specific methods leading to probabilistic decisions concerning the registration and
application of pesticides and includes case studies illustrating the application of statistical methods. The
authors discuss Bayesian inference, first-order error analysis, first-order (non-hierarchical) Monte Carlo
methods, second-order Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods, interval analysis, and probability bounds
analysis. They then examine how these methods can be used in assessments for other environmental stressors
There are many methods of analyzing variability and uncertainty and many ways of presenting the results.
Inappropriate use of these methods leads to misleading results, and experts differ on what is appropriate.
Disagreement about which methods are appropriate will result in wasted resources, conflict over findings,
and reduced credibility with decision makers and the public. There is, therefore, a need to reach a consensus
on how to choose and use appropriate methods, and to present this in the form of guidance for prospective users.
Written in a clear and concise style, the book examines how to use probabilistic methods within a risk-based decision
Introduction and Objectives, A. Hart, D. Farrar, D. Urban, D. Fischer, T. La Point, K. Romijn, and S. Ferson
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: analytical methods
: pest control
: risk assessment