Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development - Twenty-five Years of Experience with the US RPA Timber Assessment
Edited by Adams, Darius M.; Haynes, Richard W.
Long-range models that include product and resource detail are essential to meaningful analysis
of both industry and resource sustainability. Taking this as it's central argument, this book provides
essential reading to anyone interested in projecting the future of either the forest products market and/or
the forest resource conditions. It is aimed at policy makers, model builders, researchers and graduate students
who are building or using forest sector models, as well as at forest industry managers and analysts.
Hardcover 594 pp ISBN 9781402063084
While focusing on a specific modeling system the - US Timber Assessment models -
the authors highlight the general elements that might comprise a forest-sector market model
of any country or region. Approaches to policy analysis are also general and equally applicable to
both national and multi-national forest policy development outside the US € particularly in relation to
on-going efforts to formulate national programs of sustainable forestry.
The text provides literature surveys on relevant modeling issues and policy concerns, and demonstrates
the application of the modeling system using a "base case" 50 year projection and a small set of scenarios
to illustrate, for example, the effects of changes in public harvest policies, global change, variations
in investments in silviculture, and globalization.
Written for: Researchers in industry and public agencies, policy analysts in legislatures, public agencies,
private industry, private forest land owners (particularly the rapidly growing TIMO groups focusing on land
Section 1: Timber Assessments in Supporting the Development of National Forestry Programs and Policy.
The challenge of developing models to support forest sector policy analysis.
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1.1 Introduction. 1.2 Shaping
the Assessment System. 1.2.1 Past studies, methods, and policy intent. 1.2.2 Requirements of the RPA legislation. 1.2.3
Characteristics of the U.S. forest sector. 1.2.4 Changing management paradigms on public and private lands.
1.3 General model attributes; RW Haynes, DM Adams.
2. Methodological considerations in developing the Timber Assessment Projection System.
2.1 Introduction. 2.2 Approaches to forest policy planning and analysis. 2.3 Overview of the Assessment System.
2.3.1 RPA legislation, past analytical traditions and model structure. 2.3.2 Outline of the Assessment System.
2.4 Some general considerations in forest sector model development. 2.4.1 Static or dynamic models.
2.4.2 Number of market levels. 2.4.3 Resource detail. 2.4.4 Form and extent of spatial detail.
2.4.5 Exogenous or endogenous land base. 2.4.6 Exogenous or endogenous management investment;
DM Adams, RW Haynes
Section 2: Model Components.
3. Solid wood€Timber Assessment Market model.
3.1 Introduction. 3.2. General TAMM structure.
3.3 Models of solid wood market components. 3.3.1 Demand for softwood lumber, softwood plywood,
and OSB. 3.3.2 Demand for hardwood lumber. 3.3.3 Product supply relations and capacity adjustment.
3.3.4 Demand for logs and stumpage. 3.3.5 Sawtimber stumpage supply. 3.3.6 Nonstructural panels.
3.3.7 Transport costs. 3.4 Model solution. 3.4.1 Market equilibrium. 4.2 Links to other model elements.
3.5 Review of approaches to modeling the solid wood sector. 3.5.1 Short-term models versus long-term models.
3.5.2 Specification of demand. 3.5.3 Supply-side specification, log demand, and capital stock.
3.5.4 Spatial structure and trade. 3.5.5 Sawtimber supply; DM Adams.
4. North American Pulp and Paper model (NAPAP).
4.1 Introduction. 4.1.1 Historical context.
4.2 NAPAP model€origins and objectives. 4.2.1 Background. 4.2.2 Specifications.
4.2.3 FPL pulpwood model. 4.2.4 NAPAP model. 4.3 Other models and related literature.
4.3.1 Contemporaneous forest sector models. 4.3.2 Spatial equilibrium modeling.
4.3.3 Price-endogenous linear programming. 4.3.4 Techno-spatial equilibrium modeling.
4.4 Mathematical structure of NAPAP model. 4.4.1 Objective function. 4.4.2 Demand.
4.4.3 Supply. 4.4.4 Material balance constraints and prices. 4.4.5 Manufacturing capacity constraints.
4.4.6 Net manufacturing costs and input-output coefficients. 4.4.7 Recursive relationships.
4.4.8 Selected outputs. 4.4.9 Conclusions; PJ Ince , J Buongiorno.
5. Methods for projecting areas of private timberland and forest cover types.
5.2 History and scope of large-scale forest area change projections.
5.3 Structure of land-use and land-cover modeling. 5.4 Land-use modeling.
5.4.1 Land-use theory. 5.4.2 Land-use model estimation. 5.4.3 Examples of regional models.
5.5 Projecting land-use changes. 5.5.1 Projections of exogenous variables.
5.5.2 Projection methods for land uses. 5.6 Land-cover modeling. 5.6.1 Type transition theory.
5.6.2 Type transition model estimation. 5.7 Model validation. 5.8 Summary.
Appendix 5: Land-use data; R Alig, A Plantinga
6. Timber inventory and management€ATLAS
6.1 Introduction. 6.2 ATLAS structure and linkage
to other Assessment System elements. 6.2.1 Inventory strata and inventory data. 6.2.2 Growing stock
removals and harvest requests. 6.2.3 Timberland area and forest type change. 6.2.4 Management intensity.
6.2.5 Modeling forest growth. 6.2.6 Modeling yields under different harvesting methods/silvicultural regimes.
6.3 Management investment. 6.4 Other approaches to inventory projection; JR Mills, DM Adams.
7. Exogenous assumptions€framing the base case and scenarios.
7.2 Exogenous variables in the Assessment System. 7.2.1 Macroeconomic activity.
7.2.2 International trade in forest products. 7.2.3 Timber supply from public lands.
7.2.4 Adjustments for sources of sources of harvests and removals; RW Haynes, DM Adams.
8. Model solution, validation and control.
8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Linking model components and model solutions. 8.3 Model validation.
8.3.1 Validation considerations for individual components.
8.3.2 In-sample forecast error measures in the full projection system.
8.4 Model control. 8.4.1 Capacity adjustment. 8.4.2 Private stumpage supply behavior.
Appendix 8: The Gauss-Seidel method for iterative solution of systems of equations; DM Adams.
Section 3: Projections and Scenarios.
9. Base case projection.
9.1 Introduction. 9.2 Land-base and cover-type changes.
9.3 Timber resource trends. 9.3.1 Softwoods. 9.3.2 Hardwoods. 9.4 Forest products markets.
9.4.1 Softwood harvest. 9.4.2 Hardwood harvest. 9.4.3 Prices. 9.5 Canadian production and harvest; DM Adams
10. Evolving views of the future of the U.S. forest sector.
10.1 Introduction. 10.2 Visions of 2000.
10.3 The uncertain nature of assumptions. 10.3.1 Population. 10.3.2 National Forest timber harvest.
10.3.3 Trade assumptions. 10.4 Housing starts. 10.5 How have our views of the future changed over
the past 50 years?10.5.1 Lumber and plywood production. 10.5.2 Timber harvest.
10.6 Improving the treatment of prices. 10.6.1 Stumpage price projections. 10.7 Closing; RW Haynes, DM Adams.
11. The impact of public harvest in the U.S. on North American timber and product markets.
11.2 Structure of public timber sales programs. 11.3 A counterfactual simulation for Western harvest,
1990-1996. 11.4 Simulated market impacts of thinning on Western public lands. 11.5 Discussion.
11.6 Public harvest policy and the Assessment System; DM Adams, RW Haynes.
12. The role of private management investment in long-term supply.
12.2 Historical trends and behavior in private management investment in the U.S.
12.3 Private management investment in the Timber Assessment Projection System.
12.4 Alternative modeling approaches. 12.5 Scenarios of future management development.
12.5.1 National fixed management intensity and cover-type scenario.
12.5.2 Constant Southern pine plantations scenario. 12.5.3 Simulation results. 12.6 Discussion; DM Adams et al.
13. Globalization and world trade.
13.1 Introduction. 13.2 Importance of globalization and trade.
13.3 Two RPA Timber Assessment case studies. 13.4 Comparison of GFPM to Timber Assessment
Projection System. 13.5 RPA Timber Assessment in GFPM context. 13.6 Effects of exchange rates
in GFPM. 13.7 Conclusions and planned applications of GFPM; PJ Ince, J Buongiorno.
14. The impacts of climate change on forestry.
14.1 Introduction. 14.2 The RPA€Forest
Service policy analysis. 14.2.1 Climate change analyses within the RPA Resource Assessments.
14.3 Enhancing the timber policy modeling framework for climate change analyses in the 1980s.
14.3.1 Modeling forest growth and yield in the forest sector model. 14.3.2 Modeling the ecological dynamics
of forests. 14.3.3 Linking climate scenarios to ecological models and forest sector models€a modeling framework.
14.4 Projecting climate change, ecological impacts, and forest sector impacts€the static analysis in the
1993 RPA Timber Assessment. 14.4.1 Climate change impacts on forest productivity. 14.4.2
Forest sector impacts as modeled by TEM-Timber Assessment Projection System. 14.5
Projecting climate change, ecological impacts, and forest sector impacts€the transient analysis in
the 2005 RPA Timber Assessment. 14.5.1 Ecological response. 14.5.2 Results of TEM-Timber
Assessment Projection System analyses. 14.6 Forest sector market models with intertemporal optimization.
14.6.1 FASOM. 14.6.2 Ecological models incorporating species distributional shifts. 14.6.3 Analysis
of large scale forest diebacks and the forest sector response. 14.7. Global trade and climate change impacts.
14.7.1 Global trade and shifts in vegetation carbon. 14.7.2 Future price insight and climate change responses
in the forest sector. 14.8 Climate scenarios and ecological models€future directions. 14.8.1 Ecological effects
of climate change on forests. 14.8.2 Land use modeling and climate change. 14.8.3 Incorporating uncertainty into
the analyses. 14.9 Conclusions; LA Joyce.
15. Projecting technological change.
15.1 Introduction. 15.1.1 Techniques for projecting technological change.
15.2 Technological change in sawtimber harvesting. 15.3 Technological change in producing softwood lumber.
15.4 Technological change in producing softwood plywood. 15.5 Technological change in producing OSB.
15.6 Technological change in making pulp, paper, and paperboard. 15.7
Technological change in use of solid-wood products in major end-uses. 15.8
Impacts of accelerated softwood lumber recovery improvements. 15.9 Conclusions; KE Skog.
16. Long-term views of the U.S. land base. 16.1 Introduction. 16.2 Base case summary. 16.2.1
Land-base and cover-type changes. 16.3 Examples of alternative land-use projections. 16.3.1
Land-use and forest-cover scenarios. 16.4 Land-use and land-cover dynamics: influences of natural
and human factors in alternative futures. 16.5 Summary and conclusions; RJ Alig
Section 4: Lessons Learned from 25 Years of Forest Sector Modeling.
17. The utility of forest
sector models in addressing forest policy questions.
17.1 Introduction. 17.2 Sector model applications
to current policy issues. 17.3 Key developments for policy analysis in the Assessment System.
17.3.1 Adopting a mixed model format. 17.3.2 Expanding regional detail. 17.3.3
Adding timber management detail. 17.3.4 Using myopic econometric models. 17.3.5 Working with
decision makers. 17.3.6. Scale, science, specificity, and selectivity; DM Adams, RW Haynes.
Appendix 1: Common and scientific names of species
Appendix 2: Acronym list.
: agriculture & forestry
: trees and timber