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Coping with Risk in Agriculture, 2nd Edition

J B Hardaker, R B M Huirne, J R Anderson, G Lien 
CABI  March 2004  



Paperback  352 pp  ISBN 9780851998312      £35.00
The popular first edition of this standard text on risk analysis and management in agriculture has been almost wholly revised. The second edition includes much new material. There is a revised chapter on incorporating decision makers' preferences into the analysis of risky choices that recognizes and gives consideration to some recently published challenges to the legitimacy of the expected utility hypothesis. While it is argued that the theory is still the best way to handle risk aversion, at least in prescriptive analyses, more attention is given to the practical problems of utility function elicitation. It is shown how estimates of (or ranges of) degree of risk aversion might best be obtained and consistently applied.

The new edition has a much more thorough treatment of stochastic simulation, including some novel yet simple methods for dealing to stochastic dependency between uncertain quantities. The treatment of policy aspects of risk in agriculture has been revised and extended to account for such important current issues as new approaches to crop insurance, the management of serious animal and crop diseases and food safety issues. As with the first edition, the book contains a blend of theory with simple illustrative examples to enable readers to see how the principles being discussed can be made operational using modern software.

Readership: Advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students of agricultural economics and farm management, as well as advisers to farmers.

Contents

  • Introduction to risk in agriculture
  • Decision analysis: Outline and basic assumptions
  • Measuring uncertainty with subjective probabilities
  • Making better probability judgements
  • Attitudes to risky consequences
  • Integrating beliefs and preferences for decision analysis
  • Decision analysis with preferences unknown
  • Stochastic simulation
  • Risk and mathematical programming models
  • Decision analysis with multiple objectives
  • Risky decision making and time
  • Strategies decision makers can use to manage risk
  • Risk considerations in agricultural policy making
  • References
  • Selected software for decision analysis
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CABI : agriculture & forestry : modelling, computer & mathematical : risk assessment : textbook

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