World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 - An FAO Perspective

Edited by Jelle Bruinsma 
Earthscan  May 2003  

Hardback  444 pages  ISBN 9781844070084      £125.00

Softback  444 pages  ISBN 9781844070077      £48.00
Published in association with Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

This report is FAO's latest assessment of the long-term outlook for the world's food supplies, nutrition and agriculture. It presents the projections and the main messages. The projections cover supply and demand for the major agricultural commodities and sectors, including fisheries and forestry. This analysis forms the basis for a more detailed examination of other factors, such as nutrition and undernourishment, and the implications for international trade. The report also investigates the implications of future supply and demand for the natural resource base and discusses how technology can contribute to more sustainable development.

One of the report's main findings is that, if no corrective action is taken, the target set by the World Food Summit in 1996 (that of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015) is not going to be met. Nothing short of a massive effort at improving the overall development performance will free the developing world of its most pressing food insecurity problems. The progress made towards this target depends on many factors, not least of which are political will and the mobilization of additional resources. Past experience underlines the crucial role of agriculture in the development process, particularly where the majority of the population still depends on this sector for employment and income.


Foreword by the Director General of FAO

Explanatory Notes

Contributors to the book

1. Introduction and overview
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Overview

2. Prospects for food and nutrition
2.1 The broad picture: historical developments and present situation
2.2 The outlook for food and nutrition to 2015 and 2030
2.3 Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption
2.4 Concluding remarks

3. Prospects for aggregate agriculture and major commodity groups
3.1 Aggregare agriculture: historical trends and prospects
3.2 Cereals
3.3 Livestock commodities
3.4 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products
3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains
3.6 Main export commodities of the developing countries

4. Crop production and natural resource use
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Sources of growth in crop production
4.3 Agricultural land
4.4 Irrigation and water use
4.5 Land-yield combinations for major crops
4.6 Input use

5. Livestock production
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Consumption of livestock products
5.3 Production
5.4 Major perspective issues and possible policy responses
5.5 Concluding remarks

6. Forestry
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The present state of forests
6.3 Forces shaping forestry and areas of change
6.4 Probable changes up to 2015 and 2030
6.5 Major perspective issues in world forestry
6.6 Where is forestry heading?

7. Fisheries
7.1 Introduction
7.2 World fisheries at the end of the 1990s
7.3 Plausible developments in world fisheries
7.4 Concluding remarks

8. Agriculture in poverty alleviation and economic development
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Internationally agreed poverty reduction targets
8.3 The main international strategies for poverty reduction: a summary assessment
8.4 Micro and macro evidence on the impact of undernourishment
8.5 Agricultural and rural non-farm growth

9. Agricultural trade, trade policies and the global food system
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Long-term trends in the pattern of global agricultural trade
9.3 The trade policy environment for agriculture
9.4 Towards free trade in agriculture: what is important from a 30-year perspective?
9.5 Beyond the traditional trade agenda: emerging long-term trade policy issues
9.6 Summary and conclusions

10. Globalization in food and agriculture
10.1 Globalization as an ongoing process
10.2 The main features of globalization and the correlates of success
10.3 Some options to integrate developing countries better
10.4 Concluding remarks

11. Selected issues in agricultural technology
11.1 The scope of yield increases
11.2 Technologies in support of sustainable agriculture
11.3 Organic agriculture
11.4 Agricultural biotechnology
11.5 Directions for agricultural research

12. Agriculture and the environment: changing pressures, solutions and trade-offs
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Major trends and forces
12.3 Changing pressures on the environment
12.4 Current and emerging solutions
12.5 Physical and economic tra-offs
12.6 Concluding remarks

13. Climate change and agriculture: physical and human dimensions
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Agriculture as a moderator of climate change
13.3 Climate change impacts on agriculture
13.4 Implications of climate change for food security
13.5 Technological and policy options
13.6 Conclusions

1. Countries and commodities
2. Summary methodology of the quantitative analysis and projections
3. Statistical tables



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